Blu-ray and HD-DVD are the two disc formats poised to displace ordinary DVDs in the near future. These high density discs will provide enhanced video and sound as well as additional features and ads. A study by Santa Clara Consulting Group predicted that sales for blue laser players and movies would reach $7 billion worldwide by 2010. So says eMarketer Senior Analyst James Belcher.

Far from being a repeat of the VHS vs. Betamax battle, in this case studying the past only goes so far to predict a winner and after examining the situation Belcher concludes that neither format is likely to trounce the other.

Not only is the race about even, but if the new formats never reach mass adoption due to high prices and other factors then consumers might decide to just keep their old DVD players.

That discussion is interesting enough, although the outcome remains to be seen. However, Belcher also provides some enlightening general statistics about consumer adoption of electronic devices. It takes longer than one might think.
For example, even DVD, which had the quickest path to mass adoption of any consumer electronics device ever (defined as more than 50% household penetration), took several years to take off. But the Consumer Electronics Association put DVD penetration at 81% in March 2006.

The following table shows the number of years that select devices took to penetrate American households (click to enlarge):

Source: James Belcher. “Blu-Ray and HD-DVD: Only One Winner? Or Two Losers?” eMarketer 07/26/06. http://www.emarketer.com/Article.aspx?1004082.

Related Post: “Blu-Ray Disc FAQ,” eBizTutors Biz Bits Blog 06/09/06. http://www.ebiztutors.com/blog/index.php/?p=45.

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